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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Martin Sullivan 1 Simon Lewis Kofi Affum-Baffoe 2 Carolina Castilho 3 Flávia Costa Aida Cuni Sanchez Corneille Ewango Wannes Hubau 4 Beatriz Marimon Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza 5 Lan Qie 4 Bonaventure Sonke 6 Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez Timothy Baker Roel Brienen 7 Ted Feldpausch David Galbraith 8 Manuel Gloor 7 Yadvinder Malhi 9 Shin-Ichiro Aiba 10 Miguel Alexiades 11 Everton Almeida Edmar Almeida de Oliveira 12 Esteban Alvarez Davila 13 Patricia Alvarez Loayza 14 Ana Andrade 15 Simone Aparecida Vieira 16 Luiz Aragao 17 Alejandro Araujo-Murakami 18 Eric Arets 19 Luzmila Arroyo 5 Peter Ashton 20 Gerardo Aymard C. Fabrício Baccaro Lindsay Banin Christopher Baraloto 21 Plínio Barbosa Camargo 22 Jos Barlow Jorcely Barroso 23 Jean-Francois Bastin 24 Sarah Batterman Hans Beeckman 25 Serge Begne Amy Bennett Erika Berenguer 26 Nicholas Berry 27 Lilian Blanc 21 Pascal Boeckx 28 Jan Bogaert 29 Damien Bonal 30 Frans Bongers 31 Matt Bradford 32 Francis Brearley Terry Brncic Foster Brown 33 Benoît Burban 21 José Luís Camargo Wendeson Castro 23 Carlos Cerón 34 Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro Victor Chama Moscoso 35 Jérôme Chave 36 Eric Chezeaux 37 Connie Clark Fernanda Coelho de Souza Murray Collins James Comiskey Fernando Cornejo Valverde 38 Massiel Corrales Medina Lola da Costa 39 Martin Dančák Greta Dargie 4 Stuart Davies 40 Nallaret Davila Cardozo 41 Thales de Haulleville Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros Jhon del Aguila Pasquel Géraldine Derroire 42 Anthony Di Fiore 43 Jean-Louis Doucet 44 Aurélie Dourdain 45 Vincent Droissart 46 Luisa Fernanda Duque Romeo Ekoungoulou Fernando Elias 47 Terry Erwin Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert 1 Sophie Fauset 4 Joice Ferreira 48 Gerardo Flores Llampazo Ernest Foli Andrew Ford 49 Martin Gilpin 4 Jefferson Hall 40 Keith Hamer Alan Hamilton David Harris 50 Terese Hart Radim Hédl 51 Bruno Hérault 52 Rafael Herrera Niro Higuchi 53 Annette Hladik 54 Eurídice Honorio Coronado Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco 35 Walter Huaraca Huasco Kathryn Jeffery 55 Eliana Jimenez-Rojas Michelle Kalamandeen Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo Elizabeth Kearsley 56 Ricardo Keichi Umetsu Lip Khoon Kho 57 Timothy Killeen Kanehiro Kitayama 58 Bente Klitgaard Alexander Koch 59 Nicolas Labrière 42 William Laurance Susan Laurance 60 Miguel Leal Aurora Levesley Adriano Lima Janvier Lisingo Aline Lopes Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez 4 Tom Lovejoy Jon Lovett 1 Richard Lowe 61 William Magnusson 62 Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto Ben Hur Marimon 63 Andrew Marshall 64 Toby Marthews Simone Matias de Almeida Reis Colin Maycock Karina Melgaço Casimiro Mendoza 65 Faizah Metali Vianet Mihindou William Milliken 66 Edward Mitchard Paulo Morandi 65 Hannah Mossman Laszlo Nagy 67 Henrique Nascimento 68 David Neill 69 Reuben Nilus 70 Percy Núñez Vargas 35 Walter Palacios Nadir Pallqui Camacho Julie Peacock 1 Colin Pendry Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora Georgia Pickavance John Pipoly Nigel Pitman 14 Maureen Playfair Lourens Poorter 71 John Poulsen Axel Dalberg Poulsen 72 Richard Preziosi Adriana Prieto 13 Richard Primack Hirma Ramirez-Angulo 65 Jan Reitsma 73 Maxime Réjou-Méchain 46 Zorayda Restrepo Correa Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa Lily Rodriguez Bayona Anand Roopsind 74 Agustín Rudas 13 Ervan Rutishauser 40, 75 Kamariah Abu Salim Rafael Salomão 76 Juliana Schietti 15 Douglas Sheil 77 Richarlly Silva Javier Silva Espejo 35 Camila Silva Valeria Marcos Silveira 23 Murielle Simo-Droissart 78 Marcelo Fragomeni Simon James Singh Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva Clement Stahl 45 Juliana Stropp 79 Rahayu Sukri Terry Sunderland 77 Martin Svátek Michael Swaine 80 Varun Swamy Hermann Taedoumg 81 Joey Talbot 4 James Taplin David Taylor 82 Hans ter Steege 83 John Terborgh 84 Raquel Thomas Sean Thomas Armando Torres-Lezama 85 Peter Umunay Luis Valenzuela Gamarra 5 Geertje van der Heijden 86 Peter van der Hout 87 Peter van der Meer 88 Mark van Nieuwstadt Hans Verbeeck 89 Ronald Vernimmen Alberto Vicentini Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira 76 Emilio Vilanova Torre 90 Jason Vleminckx 91 Vincent Vos Ophelia Wang 92 Lee White 93 Simon Willcock 94 John Woods Verginia Wortel 95 Kenneth Young Roderick Zagt Lise Zemagho 81 Pieter Zuidema Joeri Zwerts Oliver Phillips
Abstract : The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
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https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-02650649
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Submitted on : Friday, May 29, 2020 - 2:27:40 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, November 26, 2020 - 3:20:43 AM

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Martin Sullivan, Simon Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flávia Costa, et al.. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2020, 368 (6493), pp.869-874. ⟨10.1126/science.aaw7578⟩. ⟨hal-02650649⟩

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